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Cultural Leonesa vs Mérida AD Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 · Matchday 2 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 14:00

Cultural Leonesa

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

D ····

UPCOMING

Mérida AD

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

W ····

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-19.2%0-24.4%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.3%1-112.8%1-26.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.2%2-18.8%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.2%3-14.1%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 52.4% 1.91 -16.9%

Draw 31.7% 34.7% 2.88 -8.7%

Away win 24.7% 25.6% 3.90 -2.2%

Over 2.5 43.2% 45.5% 2.20 -5.0%

Over 3.5 25.5% 25.0% 4.00 +1.2%

BTTS 48.0% 51.3% 1.95 -6.4%

Home O1.5 39.6% 47.6% 2.10 -16.8%

Away O1.5 26.1% 26.7% 3.75 -1.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.0%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 9.6%

#3 1–0 13.3%

#4 2–0 9.2%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cultural Leonesa1.4

Mérida AD1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.2% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CULTURAL LEONESA · PPG 1.50

MÉRIDA AD · PPG 1.10

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

48%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.42, combined xG 2.34 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cultural Leonesa (H) 43.5%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -16.9%

Draw 31.7%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -8.7%

Mérida AD (A) 24.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -2.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cultural Leonesa face Mérida AD in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cultural Leonesa a 44% chance, the draw 32% and Mérida AD 25%, so Cultural Leonesa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Cultural Leonesa and 1.0 for Mérida AD (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cultural Leonesa are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.10 for Mérida AD. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +15.4%.

Cultural Leonesa vs Mérida AD Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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