Worthing vs Ebbsfleet Utd Prediction— England - National League - South

England - National League - South South - 46 Sussex Transport Community Stadium· Worthing, West Sussex Saturday, April 25, 2026 11:30

Worthing PPG 2.23

2-0 HIT CS2

Ebbsfleet Utd PPG 1.32

Home· +23.5% 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Worthing face Ebbsfleet Utd in England - National League - South on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Worthing a 68% chance, the draw 18% and Ebbsfleet Utd 15%, so Worthing are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Worthing and 1.1 for Ebbsfleet Utd (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Worthing are averaging 2.23 points per game versus 1.32 for Ebbsfleet Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +23.5%. This match finished 2-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 67.5%

Odds: 1.83 EV: +23.5%

Draw 17.7%

Odds: 3.70 EV: -34.5%

Away 14.8%

Odds: 3.50 EV: -48.2%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 67.7% Odds: 1.45 -1.8%

Over 3.5 46.1% Odds: 2.15 -0.9%

BTTS 59.6% Odds: 1.42 -15.4%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✔

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 3-1 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Worthing

2.43

Ebbsfleet Utd

1.06

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -1.8% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5/Under 70%

BTTS/No 67%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 26.0%

Bet Hit 73% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.23), Away AVERAGE (1.32) - Strong consensus