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Worthing vs Ebbsfleet Utd Prediction— England - National League - South

South - 46 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

Worthing

PPG 2.23 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Ebbsfleet Utd

PPG 1.32 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-13.2%0-21.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.4%1-17.9%1-24.2%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.0%2-19.6%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.3%3-17.7%3-24.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-07.9%4+-18.3%4+-24.4%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.5% 54.6% 1.83 +23.5%

Draw 17.7% 27.0% 3.70 -34.5%

Away win 14.8% 28.6% 3.50 -48.2%

Over 2.5 67.7% 69.0% 1.45 -1.8%

Over 3.5 46.1% 46.5% 2.15 -0.9%

BTTS 59.6% 70.4% 1.42 -15.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.6%

H 68% / xG 2.4-1.1 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.6%

#2 2–0✓ 9.0%

#3 1–1 7.9%

#4 3–1 7.7%

#5 1–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Worthing2.4

Ebbsfleet Utd1.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.7% · O3.5 PROB 46.1%

Form & verdict PPG

WORTHING · PPG 2.23

EBBSFLEET UTD · PPG 1.32

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.23), Away AVERAGE (1.32) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Worthing (H) 67.5%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV +23.5%

Draw 17.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -34.5%

Ebbsfleet Utd (A) 14.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -48.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Worthing face Ebbsfleet Utd in England - National League - South on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Worthing a 68% chance, the draw 18% and Ebbsfleet Utd 15%, so Worthing are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Worthing and 1.1 for Ebbsfleet Utd (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Worthing are averaging 2.23 points per game versus 1.32 for Ebbsfleet Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +23.5%. This match finished 2-0.

Worthing vs Ebbsfleet Utd Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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