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Weston-s.-Mare vs Dorking Prediction— England - National League - South

South - 46 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

Weston-s.-Mare

PPG 2.14 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Dorking

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 42.6% — a clear edge.

+26.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-16.8%0-23.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.6%1-111.5%1-25.7%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.8%2-19.7%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.5%3-15.5%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.4%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.9% 42.6% 2.35 +26.7%

Draw 24.1% 29.4% 3.40 -18.1%

Away win 22.1% 38.2% 2.62 -42.1%

Over 2.5 50.3% 58.8% 1.70 -14.5%

Over 3.5 28.3% 36.4% 2.75 -22.2%

BTTS 51.3% 64.5% 1.55 -20.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.3%

H 54% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 11.6%

#2 1–1✓ 11.5%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Weston-s.-Mare1.7

Dorking1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

WESTON-S.-MARE · PPG 2.14

DORKING · PPG 1.09

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.14) vs P(Home)=53.9%

Win probability 1X2

Weston-s.-Mare (H) 53.9%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +26.7%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -18.1%

Dorking (A) 22.1%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -42.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Weston-s.-Mare face Dorking in England - National League - South on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Weston-s.-Mare a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Dorking 22%, so Weston-s.-Mare are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Weston-s.-Mare and 1.0 for Dorking (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Weston-s.-Mare are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.09 for Dorking. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +26.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Weston-s.-Mare vs Dorking Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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