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Al Dhafra U23 vs Khorfakkan U23 Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League U23

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 13:55

Al Dhafra U23

PPG 1.18 · HOME

LAST 5

LLD ··

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Khorfakkan U23

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLD ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-15.3%0-23.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-07.5%1-110.0%1-26.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.1%2-19.5%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.5%3-16.0%3-24.0%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-14.3%4+-22.9%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 57.8% 1.73 -19.2%

Draw 23.8% 25.6% 3.90 -4.3%

Away win 29.5% 27.8% 3.60 +3.7%

Over 2.5 59.7% 65.4% 1.53 -8.7%

Over 3.5 37.0% 43.5% 2.30 -14.9%

BTTS 60.7% 62.5% 1.60 -2.9%

Home O1.5 56.3% — — —

Away O1.5 40.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 82%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.7%

H 47% / xG 1.9-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–2 6.7%

#4 2–0 7.1%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Dhafra U231.9

Khorfakkan U231.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.0%

Form & verdict PPG

AL DHAFRA U23 · PPG 1.18

KHORFAKKAN U23 · PPG 0.64

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Al Dhafra U23 (H) 46.7%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -19.2%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -4.3%

Khorfakkan U23 (A) 29.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +3.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Dhafra U23 face Khorfakkan U23 in United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League U23 on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Dhafra U23 a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Khorfakkan U23 30%, so Al Dhafra U23 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Al Dhafra U23 and 1.3 for Khorfakkan U23 (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Dhafra U23 are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 0.64 for Khorfakkan U23. This match finished 1-1.

Al Dhafra U23 vs Khorfakkan U23 Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League U23

Match Preview & Prediction

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