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Gresford Athletic vs Mold Alexandra Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

North · Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 13:30

Gresford Athletic

PPG 0.99 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

UPCOMING

Mold Alexandra

PPG 1.49 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 70% chance

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-17.5%0-28.3%0-36.1%0-4+5.7%1 1-04.0%1-18.8%1-29.7%1-37.2%1-4+6.7%2 2-02.3%2-15.1%2-25.7%2-34.2%2-4+3.9%3 3-00.9%3-12.0%3-22.2%3-31.6%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.7% 20.0% 5.00 -6.9%

Draw 18.9% 23.1% 4.33 -10.9%

Away win 63.4% 69.0% 1.45 -8.1%

Over 2.5 63.7% 66.7% 1.50 -4.5%

Over 3.5 40.5% 46.1% 2.17 -12.1%

BTTS 55.3% 63.7% 1.57 -13.2%

Home O1.5 32.4% 32.9% 3.04 -1.5%

Away O1.5 66.5% 70.9% 1.41 -6.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 33.0%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob55.3%

A 63% / xG 1.2-2.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.7%

#2 0–2 8.3%

#3 1–1 8.8%

#4 1–3 7.2%

#5 0–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gresford Athletic1.2

Mold Alexandra2.2

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GRESFORD ATHLETIC · PPG 0.99

MOLD ALEXANDRA · PPG 1.49

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

70%

DANGER

xG gap -1.05 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Gresford Athletic (H) 17.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -6.9%

Draw 18.9%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -10.9%

Mold Alexandra (A) 63.4%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -8.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gresford Athletic face Mold Alexandra in Wales - FAW Championship on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gresford Athletic a 18% chance, the draw 19% and Mold Alexandra 63%, so Mold Alexandra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Gresford Athletic and 2.2 for Mold Alexandra (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gresford Athletic are averaging 0.99 points per game versus 1.49 for Mold Alexandra. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO05, with an expected value of +1.4%.

Gresford Athletic vs Mold Alexandra Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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