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Baglan Dragons vs Afan Lido Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

South · Matchday 7 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:30

Baglan Dragons

PPG 1.11 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWL

UPCOMING

Afan Lido

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-17.0%0-24.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.1%1-111.6%1-26.6%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.5%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.6%3-15.2%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.1%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% 43.5% 2.30 +12.2%

Draw 24.1% 27.8% 3.60 -7.9%

Away win 27.1% 40.0% 2.50 -19.4%

Over 2.5 53.8% 58.8% 1.70 -8.5%

Over 3.5 31.7% 38.2% 2.62 -17.0%

BTTS 54.7% 64.5% 1.55 -15.2%

Home O1.5 48.2% 48.3% 2.07 -0.2%

Away O1.5 33.2% 45.5% 2.20 -27.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 25.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.1%

#4 2–0 8.3%

#5 1–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Baglan Dragons1.6

Afan Lido1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BAGLAN DRAGONS · PPG 1.11

AFAN LIDO · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.50 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Baglan Dragons (H) 48.8%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +12.2%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.9%

Afan Lido (A) 27.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -19.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Baglan Dragons face Afan Lido in Wales - FAW Championship on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Baglan Dragons a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Afan Lido 27%, so Baglan Dragons are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Baglan Dragons and 1.1 for Afan Lido (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Baglan Dragons are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.78 for Afan Lido. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +11.9%.

Baglan Dragons vs Afan Lido Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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