Today / Wales - FAW Championship / Newtown AFC vs Denbigh Town

Newtown AFC vs Denbigh Town Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

North · Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:30

Newtown AFC

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWW

UPCOMING

Denbigh Town

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-12.3%0-21.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-05.8%1-16.4%1-23.5%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.1%2-18.8%2-24.8%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.4%3-18.1%3-24.4%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-010.0%4+-111.0%4+-26.0%4+-32.2%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.8% 69.4% 1.44 -2.4%

Draw 16.3% 22.2% 4.50 -16.0%

Away win 15.9% 20.0% 5.00 -12.3%

Over 2.5 68.4% 71.4% 1.40 -4.2%

Over 3.5 45.3% 50.8% 1.97 -10.8%

BTTS 61.5% 65.8% 1.52 -6.5%

Home O1.5 66.4% 73.5% 1.36 -9.7%

Away O1.5 33.1% 33.6% 2.98 -1.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 25.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 75%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.5%

H 68% / xG 2.8-1.1 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.8%

#2 3–1 8.1%

#3 2–0 8.1%

#4 3–0 7.4%

#5 1–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Newtown AFC2.8

Denbigh Town1.1

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NEWTOWN AFC · PPG 1.90

DENBIGH TOWN · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.67 for Home, form 1.90 vs 1.18 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Newtown AFC (H) 67.8%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -2.4%

Draw 16.3%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -16.0%

Denbigh Town (A) 15.9%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Newtown AFC face Denbigh Town in Wales - FAW Championship on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Newtown AFC a 68% chance, the draw 16% and Denbigh Town 16%, so Newtown AFC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Newtown AFC and 1.1 for Denbigh Town (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Newtown AFC are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.18 for Denbigh Town. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +9.6%.

Newtown AFC vs Denbigh Town Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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