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Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely) Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

South · Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:30

Baglan Dragons

PPG 0.98 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWL

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Caerau (Ely)

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-17.7%0-26.4%0-33.6%0-4+2.2%1 1-06.5%1-110.8%1-29.0%1-35.0%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.6%2-17.6%2-26.4%2-33.5%2-4+2.1%3 3-02.2%3-13.6%3-23.0%3-31.7%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.7%4+-21.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 20.0% 5.00 +74.5%

Draw 23.6% 26.7% 3.75 -6.9%

Away win 41.5% 65.4% 1.53 -36.5%

Over 2.5 59.8% 62.5% 1.60 -4.3%

Over 3.5 37.0% 40.2% 2.49 -7.9%

BTTS 60.8% 59.9% 1.67 +1.5%

Home O1.5 40.1% 29.2% 3.42 +37.1%

Away O1.5 47.9% 64.5% 1.55 -25.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 25.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob60.8%

A 42% / xG 1.4-1.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.6%

#4 0–2 6.4%

#5 0–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Baglan Dragons1.4

Caerau (Ely)1.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BAGLAN DRAGONS · PPG 0.98

CAERAU (ELY) · PPG 1.64

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.25 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Baglan Dragons (H) 34.9%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +74.5%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -6.9%

Caerau (Ely) (A) 41.5%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -36.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Baglan Dragons face Caerau (Ely) in Wales - FAW Championship on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Baglan Dragons a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Caerau (Ely) 42%, so Caerau (Ely) are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Baglan Dragons and 1.7 for Caerau (Ely) (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Baglan Dragons are averaging 0.98 points per game versus 1.64 for Caerau (Ely). The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +50.6%. This match finished 3-1.

Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely) Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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