Today / Wales - FAW Championship / Afan Lido vs Ynyshir Albions

Afan Lido vs Ynyshir Albions Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

South · Matchday 6 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 13:30

Afan Lido

PPG 1.54 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Ynyshir Albions

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-16.0%0-23.9%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.1%1-110.6%1-26.9%1-33.0%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.2%2-19.4%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.3%3-15.6%3-23.7%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.7%4+-22.4%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.7% 41.7% 2.40 +9.7%

Draw 24.2% 27.8% 3.60 -7.7%

Away win 30.1% 41.7% 2.40 -27.8%

Over 2.5 60.1% 61.7% 1.62 -2.6%

Over 3.5 37.2% 39.7% 2.52 -6.3%

BTTS 61.5% 66.7% 1.50 -7.8%

Home O1.5 49.9% 48.3% 2.07 +3.3%

Away O1.5 41.0% 48.3% 2.07 -15.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 25.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.5%

H 46% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 6.9%

#4 2–0 7.2%

#5 1–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Afan Lido1.8

Ynyshir Albions1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 37.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AFAN LIDO · PPG 1.54

YNYSHIR ALBIONS · PPG 1.12

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.47 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Afan Lido (H) 45.7%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +9.7%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.7%

Ynyshir Albions (A) 30.1%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -27.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Afan Lido face Ynyshir Albions in Wales - FAW Championship on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Afan Lido a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Ynyshir Albions 30%, so Afan Lido are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Afan Lido and 1.3 for Ynyshir Albions (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Afan Lido are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 1.12 for Ynyshir Albions. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +19.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Afan Lido vs Ynyshir Albions Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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