Today / Wales - FAW Championship / Ruthin Town vs Caersws

Ruthin Town vs Caersws Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

North · Matchday 7 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:45

Ruthin Town

PPG 1.11 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLL

UPCOMING

Caersws

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-16.8%0-25.7%0-33.2%0-4+2.0%1 1-06.1%1-110.3%1-28.7%1-34.9%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.7%2-17.9%2-26.7%2-33.8%2-4+2.3%3 3-02.4%3-14.0%3-23.4%3-31.9%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.2%4+-21.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.3% 32.3% 3.10 +6.3%

Draw 22.7% 26.7% 3.75 -8.9%

Away win 43.0% 52.4% 1.91 -17.9%

Over 2.5 63.7% 65.4% 1.53 -2.5%

Over 3.5 40.4% — — —

BTTS 61.9% — — —

Home O1.5 40.9% — — —

Away O1.5 47.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 25.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob61.9%

A 43% / xG 1.5-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 0–2 5.7%

#5 2–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ruthin Town1.5

Caersws1.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.4%

Form & verdict PPG

RUTHIN TOWN · PPG 1.11

CAERSWS · PPG 1.18

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.16 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ruthin Town (H) 34.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +6.3%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -8.9%

Caersws (A) 43.0%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -17.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ruthin Town face Caersws in Wales - FAW Championship on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ruthin Town a 34% chance, the draw 23% and Caersws 43%, so Caersws are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Ruthin Town and 1.7 for Caersws (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ruthin Town are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 1.18 for Caersws.

Ruthin Town vs Caersws Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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