Today / Wales - FAW Championship / Newport City vs Ynyshir Albions

Newport City vs Ynyshir Albions Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

South · Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:30

Newport City

PPG 0.96 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Ynyshir Albions

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.2% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-16.4%0-22.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.1%1-111.2%1-25.1%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.8%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.2%3-15.7%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-13.7%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 57.8% 1.73 -9.2%

Draw 24.1% 26.3% 3.80 -5.1%

Away win 23.4% 27.0% 3.70 -8.1%

Over 2.5 53.2% 59.9% 1.67 -11.2%

Over 3.5 31.4% 40.2% 2.49 -21.8%

BTTS 52.7% 62.9% 1.59 -16.2%

Home O1.5 48.9% 61.7% 1.62 -20.8%

Away O1.5 25.7% 34.1% 2.93 -14.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 25.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.7%

H 52% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–0 10.6%

#3 1–0 12.1%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Newport City1.7

Ynyshir Albions0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.2% · O3.5 PROB 31.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NEWPORT CITY · PPG 0.96

YNYSHIR ALBIONS · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.83 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Newport City (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -9.2%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -5.1%

Ynyshir Albions (A) 23.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -8.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Newport City face Ynyshir Albions in Wales - FAW Championship on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Newport City a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Ynyshir Albions 23%, so Newport City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Newport City and 0.9 for Ynyshir Albions (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Newport City are averaging 0.96 points per game versus 0.86 for Ynyshir Albions. This match finished 0-1.

Newport City vs Ynyshir Albions Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More Wales - FAW Championship Predictions