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Buckley Town vs Penrhyncoch Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

North · Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:30

Buckley Town

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

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UPCOMING

Penrhyncoch

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

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// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 68.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-13.4%0-22.1%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-06.4%1-18.0%1-24.9%1-32.0%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.6%2-19.4%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-06.0%3-17.4%3-24.6%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-17.7%4+-24.8%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.9% 61.7% 1.62 -7.8%

Draw 21.0% 25.0% 4.00 -9.6%

Away win 22.1% 25.0% 4.00 -7.0%

Over 2.5 65.9% 69.4% 1.44 -5.1%

Over 3.5 44.9% 48.3% 2.07 -7.1%

BTTS 61.5% 69.4% 1.44 -11.4%

Home O1.5 66.3% 68.0% 1.47 -2.5%

Away O1.5 36.8% 39.8% 2.51 -7.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 25.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.5%

H 57% / xG 2.4-1.2 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.0%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 3–1 7.4%

#5 1–2 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Buckley Town2.4

Penrhyncoch1.2

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BUCKLEY TOWN · PPG 1.29

PENRHYNCOCH · PPG 0.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.13 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Buckley Town (H) 56.9%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -7.8%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -9.6%

Penrhyncoch (A) 22.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Buckley Town face Penrhyncoch in Wales - FAW Championship on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Buckley Town a 57% chance, the draw 21% and Penrhyncoch 22%, so Buckley Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Buckley Town and 1.2 for Penrhyncoch (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Buckley Town are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.73 for Penrhyncoch. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +5.9%.

Buckley Town vs Penrhyncoch Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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