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Pontypridd Town vs Llantwit Major Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

South · Matchday 6 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 13:30

Pontypridd Town

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWD

UPCOMING

Llantwit Major

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLL ·

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.9% vs bookmaker-implied 79.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-11.8%0-21.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.2%1 1-04.7%1-15.5%1-23.2%1-31.2%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.0%2-18.2%2-24.8%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-07.0%3-18.1%3-24.7%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-010.9%4+-112.7%4+-27.4%4+-32.9%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.2% 80.0% 1.25 -13.5%

Draw 15.7% 18.2% 5.50 -8.2%

Away win 15.1% 13.3% 7.50 +8.0%

Over 2.5 72.6% 71.4% 1.40 +1.6%

Over 3.5 50.8% 51.8% 1.93 -2.0%

BTTS 63.2% 59.9% 1.67 +5.5%

Home O1.5 77.9% 79.4% 1.26 -1.8%

Away O1.5 33.2% 26.7% 3.75 +24.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 25.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.2%

H 69% / xG 3.0-1.2 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.2%

#2 3–1 8.1%

#3 2–0 7.0%

#4 3–0 7.0%

#5 1–1 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pontypridd Town3.0

Llantwit Major1.2

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 50.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PONTYPRIDD TOWN · PPG 1.82

LLANTWIT MAJOR · PPG 0.87

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.82 for Home, form 1.82 vs 0.87 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Pontypridd Town (H) 69.2%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -13.5%

Draw 15.7%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -8.2%

Llantwit Major (A) 15.1%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +8.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pontypridd Town face Llantwit Major in Wales - FAW Championship on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pontypridd Town a 69% chance, the draw 16% and Llantwit Major 15%, so Pontypridd Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Pontypridd Town and 1.2 for Llantwit Major (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pontypridd Town are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 0.87 for Llantwit Major. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +24.5%.

Pontypridd Town vs Llantwit Major Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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