Today / Wales - FAW Championship / Carmarthen Town vs Trethomas Bluebirds

Carmarthen Town vs Trethomas Bluebirds Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

South · Matchday 6 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 13:30

Carmarthen Town

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Trethomas Bluebirds

PPG 0.74 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-13.6%0-22.5%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-06.0%1-18.2%1-25.7%1-32.6%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.7%2-19.3%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-05.1%3-17.0%3-24.8%3-32.2%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-16.7%4+-24.6%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% 50.0% 2.00 +3.8%

Draw 21.1% 27.8% 3.60 -14.4%

Away win 27.0% 34.7% 2.88 -13.3%

Over 2.5 68.4% 71.4% 1.40 -4.2%

Over 3.5 46.4% 46.9% 2.13 -1.2%

BTTS 63.5% 71.4% 1.40 -11.1%

Home O1.5 66.3% 60.6% 1.65 +9.4%

Away O1.5 42.2% 48.1% 2.08 -12.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 25.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.5%

H 52% / xG 2.3-1.4 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 5.7%

#4 3–1 7.0%

#5 2–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Carmarthen Town2.3

Trethomas Bluebirds1.4

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 46.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CARMARTHEN TOWN · PPG 1.62

TRETHOMAS BLUEBIRDS · PPG 0.74

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.88 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Carmarthen Town (H) 51.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +3.8%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -14.4%

Trethomas Bluebirds (A) 27.0%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -13.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Carmarthen Town face Trethomas Bluebirds in Wales - FAW Championship on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Carmarthen Town a 52% chance, the draw 21% and Trethomas Bluebirds 27%, so Carmarthen Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Carmarthen Town and 1.4 for Trethomas Bluebirds (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Carmarthen Town are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.74 for Trethomas Bluebirds. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +13.7%. This match finished 2-3.

Carmarthen Town vs Trethomas Bluebirds Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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