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Benjamín Aceval vs 12 de Junio VH Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 13:00

Benjamín Aceval

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

12 de Junio VH

PPG 2.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 56.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-110.8%0-25.5%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.1%1-113.2%1-26.7%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.0%2-18.1%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.3%3-13.3%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.3% 43.5% 2.30 -5.0%

Draw 27.9% 31.3% 3.20 -6.4%

Away win 30.7% 37.0% 2.70 -17.1%

Over 2.5 50.4% 48.8% 2.05 +3.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.2% 3.42 -1.1%

BTTS 52.9% 56.8% 1.76 -6.9%

Home O1.5 33.7% 42.0% 2.38 -19.8%

Away O1.5 31.1% 38.3% 2.61 -18.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 41% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 1–0 13.1%

#3 0–0 10.7%

#4 0–1 10.8%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Benjamín Aceval1.2

12 de Junio VH1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BENJAMÍN ACEVAL · PPG 1.80

12 DE JUNIO VH · PPG 2.30

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

56%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.22, combined xG 2.24 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Benjamín Aceval (H) 41.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -5.0%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -6.4%

12 de Junio VH (A) 30.7%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -17.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Benjamín Aceval face 12 de Junio VH in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Benjamín Aceval a 41% chance, the draw 28% and 12 de Junio VH 31%, so Benjamín Aceval are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Benjamín Aceval and 1.0 for 12 de Junio VH (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Benjamín Aceval are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 2.30 for 12 de Junio VH. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.3%.

Benjamín Aceval vs 12 de Junio VH Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

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