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Independiente F.b.c. vs Fernando De La Mora Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Matchday 22 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 17:30

Independiente F.b.c.

PPG 1.30 · HOME

UPCOMING

Fernando De La Mora

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-16.8%0-23.9%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.0%1-111.4%1-26.5%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.6%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.7%3-15.3%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.3%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 46.5% 2.15 -0.0%

Draw 24.2% 30.3% 3.30 -12.1%

Away win 29.3% 35.7% 2.80 -10.8%

Over 2.5 54.3% 51.3% 1.95 +5.9%

Over 3.5 34.5% — — —

BTTS 55.9% — — —

Home O1.5 49.6% — — —

Away O1.5 33.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -43.1%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.9%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 1–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente F.b.c.1.7

Fernando De La Mora1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.3% · O3.5 PROB 34.5%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE F.B.C. · PPG 1.30

FERNANDO DE LA MORA · PPG 1.30

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Independiente F.b.c. (H) 46.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -0.0%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.1%

Fernando De La Mora (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente F.b.c. face Fernando De La Mora in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente F.b.c. a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Fernando De La Mora 29%, so Independiente F.b.c. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Independiente F.b.c. and 1.1 for Fernando De La Mora (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente F.b.c. are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.30 for Fernando De La Mora. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.9%.

Independiente F.b.c. vs Fernando De La Mora Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

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