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Sportivo Carapeguá vs Paraguari AC Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Matchday 22 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 19:30

Sportivo Carapeguá

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Paraguari AC

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.28 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-18.8%0-25.0%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.0%1-112.5%1-27.1%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.8%2-18.9%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.7%3-14.2%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.9% 46.5% 2.15 -7.8%

Draw 26.3% 31.3% 3.20 -9.5%

Away win 30.8% 33.3% 3.00 -7.6%

Over 2.5 51.6% 48.8% 2.05 +5.8%

Over 3.5 31.6% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 39.9% — — —

Away O1.5 33.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -43.1%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 43% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 11.0%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 0–0 7.8%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sportivo Carapeguá1.4

Paraguari AC1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTIVO CARAPEGUÁ · PPG 1.60

PARAGUARI AC · PPG 0.60

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.28 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sportivo Carapeguá (H) 42.9%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -7.8%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.5%

Paraguari AC (A) 30.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sportivo Carapeguá face Paraguari AC in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sportivo Carapeguá a 43% chance, the draw 26% and Paraguari AC 31%, so Sportivo Carapeguá are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sportivo Carapeguá and 1.1 for Paraguari AC (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sportivo Carapeguá are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.60 for Paraguari AC. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.8%.

Sportivo Carapeguá vs Paraguari AC Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

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