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Encarnación vs Benjamín Aceval Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Matchday 21 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 21:30

Encarnación

PPG 0.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Benjamín Aceval

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-110.1%0-29.4%0-35.8%0-4+4.1%1 1-05.7%1-110.7%1-29.9%1-36.1%1-4+4.3%2 2-03.0%2-15.6%2-25.2%2-33.2%2-4+2.3%3 3-01.1%3-12.0%3-21.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.1% 30.3% 3.30 -10.3%

Draw 24.0% 32.3% 3.10 -15.4%

Away win 50.9% 50.0% 2.00 +1.8%

Over 2.5 59.6% 50.0% 2.00 +19.2%

Over 3.5 36.4% 31.8% 3.14 +14.3%

BTTS 55.9% 57.1% 1.75 -2.2%

Home O1.5 30.8% 34.6% 2.89 -11.0%

Away O1.5 58.3% 49.0% 2.04 +18.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -43.1%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob55.9%

A 51% / xG 1.1-1.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 9.4%

#4 0–1 10.1%

#5 2–1 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Encarnación1.1

Benjamín Aceval1.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ENCARNACIÓN · PPG 0.50

BENJAMÍN ACEVAL · PPG 1.70

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.80 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Encarnación (H) 25.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.3%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -15.4%

Benjamín Aceval (A) 50.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +1.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Encarnación face Benjamín Aceval in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Encarnación a 25% chance, the draw 24% and Benjamín Aceval 51%, so Benjamín Aceval are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Encarnación and 1.9 for Benjamín Aceval (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Encarnación are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.70 for Benjamín Aceval. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +25.1%. This match finished 1-3.

Encarnación vs Benjamín Aceval Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

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