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Deportivo Capiata vs 3 de Noviembre Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Matchday 22 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 19:30

Deportivo Capiata

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

3 de Noviembre

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.8% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+10.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-16.4%0-23.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.9%1-111.2%1-25.8%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.8%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.5%3-15.7%3-22.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-13.7%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 52.4% 1.91 -11.0%

Draw 24.0% 32.3% 3.10 -15.4%

Away win 29.5% 27.0% 3.70 +5.5%

Over 2.5 53.8% 48.8% 2.05 +10.3%

Over 3.5 31.7% 28.6% 3.50 +10.9%

BTTS 52.9% 52.4% 1.91 +1.0%

Home O1.5 49.9% 43.1% 2.32 +15.8%

Away O1.5 32.0% 35.7% 2.80 -10.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -43.1%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 1–2 5.8%

#5 1–0 10.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Capiata1.7

3 de Noviembre1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO CAPIATA · PPG 1.80

3 DE NOVIEMBRE · PPG 0.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.72 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Capiata (H) 46.6%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -11.0%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -15.4%

3 de Noviembre (A) 29.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Capiata face 3 de Noviembre in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Capiata a 47% chance, the draw 24% and 3 de Noviembre 30%, so Deportivo Capiata are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Deportivo Capiata and 1.0 for 3 de Noviembre (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Capiata are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.40 for 3 de Noviembre. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +30.2%.

Deportivo Capiata vs 3 de Noviembre Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

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