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12 de Junio VH vs Sportivo Carapeguá Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 13:00

12 de Junio VH

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWWL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Sportivo Carapeguá

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-13.5%0-21.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.0%1-18.3%1-23.8%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.6%2-19.7%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.3%3-17.5%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-08.4%4+-17.7%4+-23.5%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.1% 65.4% 1.53 -9.6%

Draw 19.8% 26.7% 3.75 -15.4%

Away win 21.1% 20.0% 5.00 +3.3%

Over 2.5 63.0% 57.1% 1.75 +10.3%

Over 3.5 39.3% 36.5% 2.74 +7.7%

BTTS 55.0% 56.5% 1.77 -2.6%

Home O1.5 65.8% 61.7% 1.62 +6.6%

Away O1.5 25.7% 27.3% 3.66 -3.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -43.1%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.0%

H 59% / xG 2.3-0.9 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 2–0 10.6%

#3 2–1 9.7%

#4 3–0 8.3%

#5 1–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

12 de Junio VH2.3

Sportivo Carapeguá0.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

12 DE JUNIO VH · PPG 2.00

SPORTIVO CARAPEGUÁ · PPG 0.90

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.43 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

12 de Junio VH (H) 59.1%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -9.6%

Draw 19.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -15.4%

Sportivo Carapeguá (A) 21.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +3.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

12 de Junio VH face Sportivo Carapeguá in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives 12 de Junio VH a 59% chance, the draw 20% and Sportivo Carapeguá 21%, so 12 de Junio VH are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for 12 de Junio VH and 0.9 for Sportivo Carapeguá (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, 12 de Junio VH are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.90 for Sportivo Carapeguá. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +17.9%. This match finished 0-1.

12 de Junio VH vs Sportivo Carapeguá Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

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