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Tacuary vs Deportivo Santani Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:00

Tacuary

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Santani

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 55% chance

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 54.8% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-110.4%0-28.2%0-34.3%0-4+2.4%1 1-07.5%1-111.9%1-29.4%1-34.9%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.3%2-16.8%2-25.4%2-32.8%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.6%3-12.6%3-22.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.1% 23.8% 4.20 +13.3%

Draw 23.8% 28.6% 3.50 -10.0%

Away win 47.1% 59.9% 1.67 -21.3%

Over 2.5 54.8% 50.0% 2.00 +9.6%

Over 3.5 35.1% 30.5% 3.28 +15.1%

BTTS 55.9% 54.1% 1.85 +3.4%

Home O1.5 31.2% 28.6% 3.50 +9.2%

Away O1.5 47.9% 55.6% 1.80 -13.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob55.9%

A 47% / xG 1.1-1.6 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–1 10.4%

#4 0–2 8.2%

#5 2–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tacuary1.1

Deportivo Santani1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.8% · O3.5 PROB 35.1%

Form & verdict PPG

TACUARY · PPG 1.00

DEPORTIVO SANTANI · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

55%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tacuary (H) 29.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +13.3%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.0%

Deportivo Santani (A) 47.1%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -21.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tacuary face Deportivo Santani in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tacuary a 29% chance, the draw 24% and Deportivo Santani 47%, so Deportivo Santani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Tacuary and 1.6 for Deportivo Santani (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tacuary are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Deportivo Santani. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +15.1%.

Tacuary vs Deportivo Santani Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

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