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Resistencia vs Guairena FC Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Matchday 22 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 22:00

Resistencia

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Guairena FC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.3%0-110.8%0-24.4%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.0%1-113.0%1-25.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.6%2-17.9%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.9%3-13.2%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.5% 50.0% 2.00 -11.0%

Draw 31.6% 32.3% 3.10 -2.0%

Away win 23.9% 30.3% 3.30 -12.7%

Over 2.5 38.8% 43.5% 2.30 -10.8%

Over 3.5 20.3% — — —

BTTS 48.0% — — —

Home O1.5 33.0% — — —

Away O1.5 23.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -43.1%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.0%

H 44% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.0%

#2 0–0 13.3%

#3 1–1 13.0%

#4 2–0 9.6%

#5 0–1 10.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Resistencia1.2

Guairena FC0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.8% · O3.5 PROB 20.3%

Form & verdict PPG

RESISTENCIA · PPG 1.80

GUAIRENA FC · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.39, combined xG 2.02 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Resistencia (H) 44.5%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -11.0%

Draw 31.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -2.0%

Guairena FC (A) 23.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Resistencia face Guairena FC in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Resistencia a 45% chance, the draw 32% and Guairena FC 24%, so Resistencia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Resistencia and 0.8 for Guairena FC (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Resistencia are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.00 for Guairena FC.

Resistencia vs Guairena FC Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

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