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Durham W vs Southampton W Prediction— England - Women's Championship

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 11:00

Durham W

PPG 1.41 · HOME

UPCOMING

Southampton W

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 61.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-16.8%0-24.7%0-32.2%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.1%1-111.1%1-27.6%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.6%2-19.0%2-26.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.6%3-14.9%3-23.4%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.9%4+-22.0%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 32.3% 3.10 +40.7%

Draw 24.5% 27.8% 3.60 -7.1%

Away win 30.1% 51.3% 1.95 -41.3%

Over 2.5 59.6% 55.6% 1.80 +7.3%

Over 3.5 36.4% 35.3% 2.83 +3.0%

BTTS 61.5% 61.3% 1.63 +0.2%

Home O1.5 48.1% 39.2% 2.55 +22.7%

Away O1.5 42.2% 52.6% 1.90 -19.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 85%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.5%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–0 6.6%

#5 1–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Durham W1.6

Southampton W1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DURHAM W · PPG 1.41

SOUTHAMPTON W · PPG 1.71

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

61%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.25 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Durham W (H) 45.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +40.7%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.1%

Southampton W (A) 30.1%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -41.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Durham W face Southampton W in England - Women's Championship on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Durham W a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Southampton W 30%, so Durham W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Durham W and 1.4 for Southampton W (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Durham W are averaging 1.41 points per game versus 1.71 for Southampton W. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +40.4%.

Durham W vs Southampton W Prediction— England - Women's Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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