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Ipswich Town W vs Nottingham Forest W Prediction— England - Women's Championship

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 13:00

Ipswich Town W

PPG 1.35 · HOME

UPCOMING

Nottingham Forest W

PPG 1.41 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-16.8%0-24.6%0-32.1%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.1%1-111.1%1-27.6%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.6%2-19.1%2-26.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.6%3-14.9%3-23.4%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.9%4+-22.0%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 33.3% 3.00 +36.2%

Draw 24.5% 28.6% 3.50 -8.6%

Away win 30.1% 50.0% 2.00 -39.8%

Over 2.5 59.6% 54.1% 1.85 +10.3%

Over 3.5 36.4% 33.7% 2.97 +8.1%

BTTS 61.5% 60.6% 1.65 +1.5%

Home O1.5 48.1% 37.9% 2.64 +27.0%

Away O1.5 42.2% 49.0% 2.04 -13.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 85%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.5%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–0 6.6%

#5 1–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ipswich Town W1.6

Nottingham Forest W1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

IPSWICH TOWN W · PPG 1.35

NOTTINGHAM FOREST W · PPG 1.41

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

61%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.27 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ipswich Town W (H) 45.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +36.2%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.6%

Nottingham Forest W (A) 30.1%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -39.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ipswich Town W face Nottingham Forest W in England - Women's Championship on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ipswich Town W a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Nottingham Forest W 30%, so Ipswich Town W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Ipswich Town W and 1.4 for Nottingham Forest W (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ipswich Town W are averaging 1.35 points per game versus 1.41 for Nottingham Forest W. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +34.5%.

Ipswich Town W vs Nottingham Forest W Prediction— England - Women's Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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