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Ural vs KAMAZ Prediction— Russia - First League

Matchday 10 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 12:00

Ural

PPG 2.01 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWD

UPCOMING

KAMAZ

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLW

// Model verdict

Home 70% chance

Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-14.9%0-21.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.0%1-19.4%1-23.0%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.4%2-19.1%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.2%3-15.8%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-14.3%4+-21.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.4% 74.1% 1.35 -17.1%

Draw 22.6% 21.7% 4.60 +2.4%

Away win 16.0% 12.0% 8.30 +19.7%

Over 2.5 51.4% 59.5% 1.68 -13.7%

Over 3.5 31.6% 38.6% 2.59 -18.2%

BTTS 48.0% 51.8% 1.93 -7.4%

Home O1.5 55.8% 68.0% 1.47 -18.0%

Away O1.5 15.7% 19.4% 5.15 -11.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -34.1%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.0%

H 61% / xG 1.9-0.6 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.4%

#2 1–0 15.0%

#3 1–1 9.4%

#4 0–0 7.8%

#5 3–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ural1.9

KAMAZ0.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

URAL · PPG 2.01

KAMAZ · PPG 1.31

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

70%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.29 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ural (H) 61.4%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -17.1%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +2.4%

KAMAZ (A) 16.0%

ODDS 8.30 · IMPLIED 12.0% EV +19.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ural face KAMAZ in Russia - First League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ural a 61% chance, the draw 23% and KAMAZ 16%, so Ural are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Ural and 0.6 for KAMAZ (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ural are averaging 2.01 points per game versus 1.31 for KAMAZ.

Ural vs KAMAZ Prediction— Russia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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