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Enisey vs Shinnik Yaroslavl Prediction— Russia - First League

Matchday 9 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 09:00

Enisey

PPG 1.65 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Shinnik Yaroslavl

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 49.3% — a clear edge.

+10.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-18.8%0-25.1%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.8%1-112.5%1-27.2%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.7%2-18.9%2-25.1%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.6%3-14.2%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.0% 46.9% 2.13 -14.8%

Draw 24.6% 33.3% 3.00 -15.7%

Away win 35.4% 27.6% 3.62 +28.1%

Over 2.5 53.5% 41.3% 2.42 +29.5%

Over 3.5 31.5% 22.2% 4.50 +41.8%

BTTS 54.3% 49.3% 2.03 +10.2%

Home O1.5 40.1% 40.5% 2.47 -0.9%

Away O1.5 33.0% 26.3% 3.80 +25.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -34.1%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.3%

H 40% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–2 7.2%

#3 1–0 10.8%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 0–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Enisey1.4

Shinnik Yaroslavl1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ENISEY · PPG 1.65

SHINNIK YAROSLAVL · PPG 1.45

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.26 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Enisey (H) 40.0%

ODDS 2.13 · IMPLIED 46.9% EV -14.8%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -15.7%

Shinnik Yaroslavl (A) 35.4%

ODDS 3.62 · IMPLIED 27.6% EV +28.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Enisey face Shinnik Yaroslavl in Russia - First League on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Enisey a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Shinnik Yaroslavl 35%, so Enisey are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Enisey and 1.2 for Shinnik Yaroslavl (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Enisey are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 1.45 for Shinnik Yaroslavl. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +41.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Enisey vs Shinnik Yaroslavl Prediction— Russia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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