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FC Sochi vs Nizhny Novgorod Prediction— Russia - First League

Matchday 10 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

FC Sochi

PPG 1.83 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

UPCOMING

Nizhny Novgorod

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 50.5% — a clear edge.

+35.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-14.4%0-23.5%0-31.9%0-4+1.1%1 1-05.4%1-18.7%1-27.0%1-33.8%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.4%2-18.7%2-27.0%2-33.8%2-4+2.2%3 3-03.6%3-15.8%3-24.7%3-32.5%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-14.6%4+-23.7%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.5% 37.5% 2.67 +26.8%

Draw 22.0% 31.4% 3.18 -18.0%

Away win 30.5% 39.1% 2.56 -21.9%

Over 2.5 68.4% 50.5% 1.98 +35.4%

Over 3.5 45.0% 30.5% 3.28 +47.6%

BTTS 63.5% 57.8% 1.73 +9.8%

Home O1.5 55.8% 39.5% 2.53 +41.2%

Away O1.5 47.9% 40.8% 2.45 +17.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -34.1%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.5%

H 48% / xG 2.0-1.6 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 3–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Sochi2.0

Nizhny Novgorod1.6

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FC SOCHI · PPG 1.83

NIZHNY NOVGOROD · PPG 1.83

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Sochi (H) 47.5%

ODDS 2.67 · IMPLIED 37.5% EV +26.8%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.18 · IMPLIED 31.4% EV -18.0%

Nizhny Novgorod (A) 30.5%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV -21.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Sochi face Nizhny Novgorod in Russia - First League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Sochi a 48% chance, the draw 22% and Nizhny Novgorod 31%, so FC Sochi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for FC Sochi and 1.6 for Nizhny Novgorod (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Sochi are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.83 for Nizhny Novgorod. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +93.8%.

FC Sochi vs Nizhny Novgorod Prediction— Russia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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