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Spartak Kostroma vs Rotor Volgograd Prediction— Russia - First League

Matchday 9 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 16:30

Spartak Kostroma

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Rotor Volgograd

PPG 1.05 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 46.9% — a clear edge.

+14.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-17.9%0-24.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.7%1-112.1%1-26.3%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.3%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.6%3-14.8%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.6%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.9% 41.0% 2.44 +14.4%

Draw 25.3% 33.6% 2.98 -14.8%

Away win 27.8% 33.4% 2.99 -10.1%

Over 2.5 52.4% 38.2% 2.62 +37.3%

Over 3.5 31.6% 20.2% 4.95 +56.4%

BTTS 53.9% 46.9% 2.13 +14.8%

Home O1.5 43.1% 34.0% 2.94 +26.7%

Away O1.5 32.4% 28.7% 3.48 +12.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -34.1%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.9%

H 47% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0✓ 11.7%

#3 2–1 9.3%

#4 2–0 9.0%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spartak Kostroma1.5

Rotor Volgograd1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTAK KOSTROMA · PPG 1.50

ROTOR VOLGOGRAD · PPG 1.05

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.50 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Spartak Kostroma (H) 46.9%

ODDS 2.44 · IMPLIED 41.0% EV +14.4%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -14.8%

Rotor Volgograd (A) 27.8%

ODDS 2.99 · IMPLIED 33.4% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spartak Kostroma face Rotor Volgograd in Russia - First League on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spartak Kostroma a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Rotor Volgograd 28%, so Spartak Kostroma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Spartak Kostroma and 1.0 for Rotor Volgograd (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spartak Kostroma are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.05 for Rotor Volgograd. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +56.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Spartak Kostroma vs Rotor Volgograd Prediction— Russia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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