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Enisey vs FK Neftekhimik Prediction— Russia - First League

Matchday 10 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:00

Enisey

PPG 1.58 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDLD

UPCOMING

FK Neftekhimik

PPG 1.34 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.8% vs bookmaker-implied 55.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-18.0%0-23.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.9%1-111.9%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.8%2-18.8%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.9%3-14.4%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.8% 55.2% 1.81 -8.1%

Draw 26.3% 29.2% 3.42 -6.0%

Away win 22.9% 23.3% 4.30 -0.9%

Over 2.5 45.8% 46.1% 2.17 -0.6%

Over 3.5 25.9% 25.8% 3.88 +0.3%

BTTS 48.0% 50.5% 1.98 -5.0%

Home O1.5 39.9% 47.8% 2.09 -16.6%

Away O1.5 19.6% 24.7% 4.05 -12.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -34.1%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.0%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.9%

#2 1–1 11.9%

#3 2–0 11.8%

#4 0–0 10.7%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Enisey1.5

FK Neftekhimik0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ENISEY · PPG 1.58

FK NEFTEKHIMIK · PPG 1.34

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Enisey (H) 50.8%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV -8.1%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.42 · IMPLIED 29.2% EV -6.0%

FK Neftekhimik (A) 22.9%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV -0.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Enisey face FK Neftekhimik in Russia - First League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Enisey a 51% chance, the draw 26% and FK Neftekhimik 23%, so Enisey are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Enisey and 0.7 for FK Neftekhimik (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Enisey are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.34 for FK Neftekhimik. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +0.3%.

Enisey vs FK Neftekhimik Prediction— Russia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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