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Chelyabinsk vs Spartak Kostroma Prediction— Russia - First League

Matchday 10 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:00

Chelyabinsk

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDL

UPCOMING

Spartak Kostroma

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 56.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-19.9%0-26.8%0-33.1%0-4+1.4%1 1-09.1%1-112.5%1-28.5%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.7%2-17.8%2-25.3%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.4%3-13.3%3-22.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.6% 32.3% 3.10 +10.4%

Draw 25.9% 31.4% 3.18 -10.6%

Away win 38.5% 44.2% 2.26 -13.0%

Over 2.5 53.8% 49.8% 2.01 +8.1%

Over 3.5 31.6% 30.5% 3.28 +3.6%

BTTS 54.6% 56.8% 1.76 -3.9%

Home O1.5 36.9% 35.6% 2.81 +3.7%

Away O1.5 42.2% 43.7% 2.29 -3.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -34.1%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.6%

A 38% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 0–1 9.9%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chelyabinsk1.3

Spartak Kostroma1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CHELYABINSK · PPG 1.40

SPARTAK KOSTROMA · PPG 1.62

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.12 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Chelyabinsk (H) 35.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +10.4%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.18 · IMPLIED 31.4% EV -10.6%

Spartak Kostroma (A) 38.5%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV -13.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chelyabinsk face Spartak Kostroma in Russia - First League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chelyabinsk a 36% chance, the draw 26% and Spartak Kostroma 39%, so Spartak Kostroma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Chelyabinsk and 1.4 for Spartak Kostroma (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chelyabinsk are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.62 for Spartak Kostroma. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +11.7%.

Chelyabinsk vs Spartak Kostroma Prediction— Russia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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