Today / Russia - First League / FK Neftekhimik vs FC UFA

FK Neftekhimik vs FC UFA Prediction— Russia - First League

Matchday 9 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 16:30

FK Neftekhimik

PPG 1.16 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

FC UFA

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-111.7%0-26.8%0-32.6%0-4+1.0%1 1-011.4%1-113.3%1-27.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.5%2-17.5%2-24.4%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.4%3-12.8%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 40.0% 2.50 -9.0%

Draw 27.7% 33.1% 3.02 -9.8%

Away win 36.0% 34.7% 2.88 +3.7%

Over 2.5 50.5% 40.5% 2.47 +24.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 21.3% 4.70 +20.9%

BTTS 52.7% 49.5% 2.02 +6.5%

Home O1.5 31.1% 35.1% 2.85 -11.4%

Away O1.5 33.0% 31.3% 3.20 +5.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -34.1%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.7%

H 36% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 1–0 11.4%

#3 0–0 10.1%

#4 0–1✓ 11.7%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FK Neftekhimik1.1

FC UFA1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FK NEFTEKHIMIK · PPG 1.16

FC UFA · PPG 0.78

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.03, combined xG 2.30 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FK Neftekhimik (H) 36.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -9.0%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.02 · IMPLIED 33.1% EV -9.8%

FC UFA (A) 36.0%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +3.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

FK Neftekhimik face FC UFA in Russia - First League on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FK Neftekhimik a 36% chance, the draw 28% and FC UFA 36%, so FK Neftekhimik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for FK Neftekhimik and 1.2 for FC UFA (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FK Neftekhimik are averaging 1.16 points per game versus 0.78 for FC UFA. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +24.7%. This match finished 0-1.

FK Neftekhimik vs FC UFA Prediction— Russia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Russia - First League Predictions