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Arsenal Tula vs Ural Prediction— Russia - First League

Matchday 9 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Arsenal Tula

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWLD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Ural

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.3%0-115.4%0-29.6%0-34.0%0-4+1.6%1 1-010.4%1-113.0%1-28.1%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-04.4%2-15.5%2-23.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.2%3-11.6%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.0% 29.9% 3.34 -9.9%

Draw 28.3% 32.3% 3.10 -7.4%

Away win 46.7% 45.7% 2.19 +2.3%

Over 2.5 43.1% 46.1% 2.17 -6.5%

Over 3.5 20.7% 26.6% 3.76 -13.3%

BTTS 47.2% 53.8% 1.86 -12.2%

Home O1.5 30.9% 31.3% 3.20 -1.1%

Away O1.5 36.6% 42.6% 2.35 -14.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -34.1%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob47.2%

A 47% / xG 0.8-1.3 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.4%

#2 1–1 13.0%

#3 0–0 12.3%

#4 0–2 9.6%

#5 1–0 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arsenal Tula0.8

Ural1.3

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ARSENAL TULA · PPG 1.67

URAL · PPG 1.60

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.40, combined xG 2.10 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Arsenal Tula (H) 25.0%

ODDS 3.34 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -9.9%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.4%

Ural (A) 46.7%

ODDS 2.19 · IMPLIED 45.7% EV +2.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arsenal Tula face Ural in Russia - First League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arsenal Tula a 25% chance, the draw 28% and Ural 47%, so Ural are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Arsenal Tula and 1.3 for Ural (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arsenal Tula are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.60 for Ural. This match finished 2-2.

Arsenal Tula vs Ural Prediction— Russia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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