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Ska-khabarovsk vs Torpedo Moskva Prediction— Russia - First League

Matchday 9 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 05:00

Ska-khabarovsk

PPG 1.26 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Torpedo Moskva

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.4 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 51.8% vs bookmaker-implied 47.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-113.1%0-29.7%0-34.7%0-4+2.4%1 1-08.4%1-112.4%1-29.1%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.0%2-15.9%2-24.3%2-32.1%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.3%3-11.8%3-21.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.2% 18.2% 5.50 +23.2%

Draw 25.4% 26.5% 3.78 -2.4%

Away win 49.4% 63.3% 1.58 -21.9%

Over 2.5 51.8% 47.4% 2.11 +9.3%

Over 3.5 31.3% 26.9% 3.72 +16.4%

BTTS 52.7% 48.5% 2.06 +8.6%

Home O1.5 30.9% 20.4% 4.90 +51.4%

Away O1.5 40.9% 53.5% 1.87 -23.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -34.1%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob52.7%

A 49% / xG 0.9-1.5 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–1 13.1%

#3 0–2✓ 9.7%

#4 1–2 9.1%

#5 0–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ska-khabarovsk0.9

Torpedo Moskva1.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SKA-KHABAROVSK · PPG 1.26

TORPEDO MOSKVA · PPG 1.56

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.53 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Ska-khabarovsk (H) 25.2%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +23.2%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.78 · IMPLIED 26.5% EV -2.4%

Torpedo Moskva (A) 49.4%

ODDS 1.58 · IMPLIED 63.3% EV -21.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ska-khabarovsk face Torpedo Moskva in Russia - First League on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ska-khabarovsk a 25% chance, the draw 25% and Torpedo Moskva 49%, so Torpedo Moskva are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Ska-khabarovsk and 1.5 for Torpedo Moskva (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ska-khabarovsk are averaging 1.26 points per game versus 1.56 for Torpedo Moskva. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +51.4%. This match finished 0-2.

Ska-khabarovsk vs Torpedo Moskva Prediction— Russia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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