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Volga Ulyanovsk vs Arsenal Tula Prediction— Russia - First League

Matchday 10 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:00

Volga Ulyanovsk

PPG 1.07 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLD

UPCOMING

Arsenal Tula

PPG 0.96 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-18.6%0-24.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.7%1-112.5%1-26.7%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.5%2-19.0%2-24.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.1%3-14.4%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.2%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 40.3% 2.48 +11.3%

Draw 25.5% 31.4% 3.18 -11.3%

Away win 29.6% 36.1% 2.77 -10.8%

Over 2.5 53.3% 47.2% 2.12 +13.0%

Over 3.5 31.6% 26.9% 3.72 +17.5%

BTTS 54.6% 54.6% 1.83 -0.1%

Home O1.5 39.9% 39.1% 2.56 +2.1%

Away O1.5 32.5% 36.1% 2.77 -10.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -34.1%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 11.7%

#3 2–1 9.0%

#4 2–0 8.5%

#5 0–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Volga Ulyanovsk1.4

Arsenal Tula1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.3% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VOLGA ULYANOVSK · PPG 1.07

ARSENAL TULA · PPG 0.96

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Volga Ulyanovsk (H) 44.9%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV +11.3%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.18 · IMPLIED 31.4% EV -11.3%

Arsenal Tula (A) 29.6%

ODDS 2.77 · IMPLIED 36.1% EV -10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Volga Ulyanovsk face Arsenal Tula in Russia - First League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Volga Ulyanovsk a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Arsenal Tula 30%, so Volga Ulyanovsk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Volga Ulyanovsk and 1.1 for Arsenal Tula (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Volga Ulyanovsk are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 0.96 for Arsenal Tula. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.5%.

Volga Ulyanovsk vs Arsenal Tula Prediction— Russia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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