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Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Rotor Volgograd Prediction— Russia - First League

Matchday 10 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Shinnik Yaroslavl

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWD

UPCOMING

Rotor Volgograd

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.2% vs bookmaker-implied 35.3% — a clear edge.

+47.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-18.2%0-23.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.5%1-112.3%1-25.6%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.2%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.0%3-14.6%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.4%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.2% 35.3% 2.83 +47.7%

Draw 25.2% 35.0% 2.86 -16.8%

Away win 22.6% 37.6% 2.66 -23.9%

Over 2.5 50.4% 40.2% 2.49 +25.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 20.2% 4.95 +25.2%

BTTS 49.9% 48.5% 2.06 +2.8%

Home O1.5 39.9% 30.7% 3.26 +30.1%

Away O1.5 26.1% 32.3% 3.10 -11.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -34.1%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.9%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.9 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.5%

#2 1–1 12.3%

#3 2–0 10.1%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 0–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shinnik Yaroslavl1.5

Rotor Volgograd0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SHINNIK YAROSLAVL · PPG 1.67

ROTOR VOLGOGRAD · PPG 0.95

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Shinnik Yaroslavl (H) 52.2%

ODDS 2.83 · IMPLIED 35.3% EV +47.7%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 2.86 · IMPLIED 35.0% EV -16.8%

Rotor Volgograd (A) 22.6%

ODDS 2.66 · IMPLIED 37.6% EV -23.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shinnik Yaroslavl face Rotor Volgograd in Russia - First League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shinnik Yaroslavl a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Rotor Volgograd 23%, so Shinnik Yaroslavl are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Shinnik Yaroslavl and 0.9 for Rotor Volgograd (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shinnik Yaroslavl are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.95 for Rotor Volgograd. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +58.5%.

Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Rotor Volgograd Prediction— Russia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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