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Deportivo La Coruña II vs Cacereño Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 · Matchday 2 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 10:00

Deportivo La Coruña II

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

L ····

UPCOMING

Cacereño

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

LAST 5

W ····

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-110.5%0-25.0%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.9%1-113.1%1-26.2%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.7%2-18.2%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.6%3-13.5%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.9% 39.2% 2.55 -0.8%

Draw 31.9% 34.5% 2.90 -7.5%

Away win 29.2% 38.2% 2.62 -14.1%

Over 2.5 42.7% 40.0% 2.50 +6.8%

Over 3.5 20.9% 22.2% 4.50 -3.6%

BTTS 48.0% 47.6% 2.10 +0.8%

Home O1.5 37.2% 33.3% 3.00 +11.6%

Away O1.5 26.1% 30.8% 3.25 -9.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.0%

D 32% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 11.0%

#3 1–0 13.9%

#4 0–1 10.5%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo La Coruña II1.3

Cacereño0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO LA CORUÑA II · PPG 1.50

CACEREÑO · PPG 1.31

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

48%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.31, combined xG 2.20 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo La Coruña II (H) 38.9%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -0.8%

Draw 31.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -7.5%

Cacereño (A) 29.2%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -14.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo La Coruña II face Cacereño in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo La Coruña II a 39% chance, the draw 32% and Cacereño 29%, so Deportivo La Coruña II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Deportivo La Coruña II and 0.9 for Cacereño (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo La Coruña II are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.31 for Cacereño. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +23.2%.

Deportivo La Coruña II vs Cacereño Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions