Today / South-Korea - K4 League / Sejong SA vs Seosan Pioneer

Sejong SA vs Seosan Pioneer Prediction— South-Korea - K4 League

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 10:00

Sejong SA

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

UPCOMING

Seosan Pioneer

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 65% chance

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-13.2%0-22.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-04.8%1-17.5%1-25.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.6%2-18.7%2-26.7%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-04.4%3-16.8%3-25.2%3-32.7%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-16.9%4+-25.3%4+-32.7%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.8% 63.7% 1.57 -20.2%

Draw 20.8% 25.0% 4.00 -10.1%

Away win 28.3% 23.1% 4.33 +13.5%

Over 2.5 68.4% 63.7% 1.57 +7.4%

Over 3.5 49.4% 42.6% 2.35 +16.1%

BTTS 63.5% 62.9% 1.59 +1.0%

Home O1.5 66.3% 66.2% 1.51 +0.1%

Away O1.5 47.9% 31.7% 3.15 +50.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 25%

ROI 37.5%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.5%

H 51% / xG 2.3-1.5 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.5%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 5.7%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 3–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sejong SA2.3

Seosan Pioneer1.5

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SEJONG SA · PPG 1.56

SEOSAN PIONEER · PPG 0.60

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

65%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sejong SA (H) 50.8%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -20.2%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -10.1%

Seosan Pioneer (A) 28.3%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +13.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sejong SA face Seosan Pioneer in South-Korea - K4 League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sejong SA a 51% chance, the draw 21% and Seosan Pioneer 28%, so Sejong SA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Sejong SA and 1.5 for Seosan Pioneer (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sejong SA are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.60 for Seosan Pioneer. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +50.9%.

Sejong SA vs Seosan Pioneer Prediction— South-Korea - K4 League

Match Preview & Prediction

More South-Korea - K4 League Predictions