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Jecheon Citizen vs Sejong SA Prediction— South-Korea - K4 League

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 07:00

Jecheon Citizen

PPG 1.12 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLW

5 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sejong SA

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-110.4%0-26.2%0-32.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.9%1-113.0%1-27.7%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.8%2-18.1%2-24.8%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.8%3-13.4%3-22.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.4%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.4% 46.5% 2.15 -17.4%

Draw 26.7% 32.3% 3.10 -10.3%

Away win 34.9% 35.7% 2.80 -2.3%

Over 2.5 51.6% 57.1% 1.75 -9.7%

Over 3.5 30.9% 37.0% 2.70 -16.6%

BTTS 54.7% 62.5% 1.60 -12.5%

Home O1.5 35.3% 50.5% 1.98 -30.1%

Away O1.5 36.4% 42.0% 2.38 -13.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 25%

ROI 37.5%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-4

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.7%

H 38% / xG 1.2-1.2 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 1–0 10.9%

#3 0–0 8.7%

#4 0–1 10.4%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jecheon Citizen1.2

Sejong SA1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

JECHEON CITIZEN · PPG 1.12

SEJONG SA · PPG 1.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.05, combined xG 2.44 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Jecheon Citizen (H) 38.4%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -17.4%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.3%

Sejong SA (A) 34.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -2.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jecheon Citizen face Sejong SA in South-Korea - K4 League on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jecheon Citizen a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Sejong SA 35%, so Jecheon Citizen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Jecheon Citizen and 1.2 for Sejong SA (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jecheon Citizen are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 1.12 for Sejong SA. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +0.1%. This match finished 5-4.

Jecheon Citizen vs Sejong SA Prediction— South-Korea - K4 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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