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Jinju Citizen vs Namyangju Prediction— South-Korea - K4 League

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 09:00

Jinju Citizen

PPG 2.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWD

UPCOMING

Namyangju

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 58% chance

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-14.9%0-22.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.9%1-19.8%1-24.4%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.0%2-19.9%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.4%3-16.7%3-23.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-15.3%4+-22.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.1% 64.5% 1.55 -13.0%

Draw 22.0% 25.6% 3.90 -8.5%

Away win 21.9% 21.1% 4.75 +2.4%

Over 2.5 59.6% 57.8% 1.73 +3.1%

Over 3.5 36.4% 37.0% 2.70 -1.7%

BTTS 54.6% 57.5% 1.74 -5.0%

Home O1.5 55.8% 62.1% 1.61 -10.2%

Away O1.5 25.9% 27.3% 3.66 -3.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 25%

ROI 37.5%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 56% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–0 11.0%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 3–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jinju Citizen2.0

Namyangju0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

JINJU CITIZEN · PPG 2.67

NAMYANGJU · PPG 1.78

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

58%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.12 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Jinju Citizen (H) 56.1%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -13.0%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -8.5%

Namyangju (A) 21.9%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jinju Citizen face Namyangju in South-Korea - K4 League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jinju Citizen a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Namyangju 22%, so Jinju Citizen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Jinju Citizen and 0.9 for Namyangju (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jinju Citizen are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 1.78 for Namyangju. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.1%.

Jinju Citizen vs Namyangju Prediction— South-Korea - K4 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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