Today / South-Korea - K4 League / Geumsan Insam vs Pyeongtaek Citizen

Geumsan Insam vs Pyeongtaek Citizen Prediction— South-Korea - K4 League

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 08:00

Geumsan Insam

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWD

UPCOMING

Pyeongtaek Citizen

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 67% chance

Model probability 62.7% vs bookmaker-implied 68.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-14.2%0-21.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.1%1-19.1%1-24.1%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.9%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.8%3-17.1%3-23.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-16.3%4+-22.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.3% 59.9% 1.67 -1.0%

Draw 20.0% 26.7% 3.75 -15.0%

Away win 20.6% 25.6% 3.90 -11.8%

Over 2.5 61.0% 65.4% 1.53 -6.7%

Over 3.5 38.2% 44.4% 2.25 -14.1%

BTTS 54.6% 64.5% 1.55 -15.4%

Home O1.5 62.7% 68.5% 1.46 -8.5%

Away O1.5 26.1% 35.6% 2.81 -16.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 25%

ROI 37.5%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 59% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.9%

#2 1–1 9.1%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 3–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Geumsan Insam2.2

Pyeongtaek Citizen0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.0% · O3.5 PROB 38.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GEUMSAN INSAM · PPG 1.78

PYEONGTAEK CITIZEN · PPG 0.83

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

67%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.25 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Geumsan Insam (H) 59.3%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -1.0%

Draw 20.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -15.0%

Pyeongtaek Citizen (A) 20.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -11.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Geumsan Insam face Pyeongtaek Citizen in South-Korea - K4 League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Geumsan Insam a 59% chance, the draw 20% and Pyeongtaek Citizen 21%, so Geumsan Insam are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Geumsan Insam and 0.9 for Pyeongtaek Citizen (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Geumsan Insam are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 0.83 for Pyeongtaek Citizen.

Geumsan Insam vs Pyeongtaek Citizen Prediction— South-Korea - K4 League

Match Preview & Prediction

More South-Korea - K4 League Predictions