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Jungnang Chorus Mustang vs Namyangju Prediction— South-Korea - K4 League

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 08:00

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

PPG 1.22 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Namyangju

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-17.5%0-24.2%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.4%1-111.9%1-26.7%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.4%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.4%3-15.0%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.8%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.0% 51.3% 1.95 -8.3%

Draw 24.4% 30.8% 3.25 -12.4%

Away win 28.6% 30.3% 3.30 -3.4%

Over 2.5 53.9% 57.8% 1.73 -6.8%

Over 3.5 33.5% 38.2% 2.62 -12.2%

BTTS 54.7% 63.7% 1.57 -14.1%

Home O1.5 47.4% 54.6% 1.83 -13.3%

Away O1.5 35.6% 38.9% 2.57 -8.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 25%

ROI 37.5%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 10.4%

#4 2–0 8.3%

#5 1–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jungnang Chorus Mustang1.6

Namyangju1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 33.5%

Form & verdict PPG

JUNGNANG CHORUS MUSTANG · PPG 1.22

NAMYANGJU · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Jungnang Chorus Mustang (H) 47.0%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -8.3%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.4%

Namyangju (A) 28.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jungnang Chorus Mustang face Namyangju in South-Korea - K4 League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jungnang Chorus Mustang a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Namyangju 29%, so Jungnang Chorus Mustang are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Jungnang Chorus Mustang and 1.1 for Namyangju (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jungnang Chorus Mustang are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 1.43 for Namyangju. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +5.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Jungnang Chorus Mustang vs Namyangju Prediction— South-Korea - K4 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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