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Haman vs Jincheon Prediction— South-Korea - K4 League

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 08:00

Haman

PPG 0.78 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWL

UPCOMING

Jincheon

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLWW

// Model verdict

Away 68% chance

Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-110.7%0-211.8%0-38.6%0-4+7.9%1 1-04.0%1-18.8%1-29.7%1-37.1%1-4+6.5%2 2-01.7%2-13.6%2-24.0%2-32.9%2-4+2.7%3 3-00.5%3-11.0%3-21.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.8% 19.0% 5.25 -10.2%

Draw 20.9% 23.1% 4.33 -5.7%

Away win 63.3% 69.4% 1.44 -8.8%

Over 2.5 59.8% 60.6% 1.65 -1.3%

Over 3.5 37.0% 39.1% 2.56 -5.3%

BTTS 54.6% 55.9% 1.79 -2.3%

Home O1.5 30.8% 25.1% 3.98 +22.6%

Away O1.5 62.0% 66.7% 1.50 -7.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 25%

ROI 37.5%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob54.6%

A 63% / xG 0.8-2.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 11.8%

#2 1–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 9.7%

#4 0–1 10.7%

#5 0–3 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Haman0.8

Jincheon2.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMAN · PPG 0.78

JINCHEON · PPG 1.67

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

68%

DANGER

xG gap -1.37 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Haman (H) 15.8%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -10.2%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -5.7%

Jincheon (A) 63.3%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Haman face Jincheon in South-Korea - K4 League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Haman a 16% chance, the draw 21% and Jincheon 63%, so Jincheon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Haman and 2.2 for Jincheon (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Haman are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 1.67 for Jincheon. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +22.6%.

Haman vs Jincheon Prediction— South-Korea - K4 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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