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Seosan Pioneer vs Geumsan Insam Prediction— South-Korea - K4 League

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 08:00

Seosan Pioneer

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Geumsan Insam

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWD

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 65.4% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a clear edge.

+15.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-15.9%0-27.4%0-36.3%0-4+7.2%1 1-02.9%1-17.3%1-29.2%1-37.7%1-4+8.9%2 2-01.8%2-14.5%2-25.7%2-34.8%2-4+5.5%3 3-00.7%3-11.8%3-22.3%3-32.0%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.5% 25.3% 3.95 -4.3%

Draw 20.4% 27.8% 3.60 -15.9%

Away win 56.0% 58.8% 1.70 -4.8%

Over 2.5 67.3% 59.9% 1.67 +12.4%

Over 3.5 43.5% 36.0% 2.78 +20.9%

BTTS 63.1% 59.9% 1.67 +5.4%

Home O1.5 33.4% 32.9% 3.04 +1.5%

Away O1.5 65.4% 56.5% 1.77 +15.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 25%

ROI 37.5%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob63.1%

A 56% / xG 1.2-2.5 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.3%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 1–3 7.7%

#4 2–1 4.5%

#5 0–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Seosan Pioneer1.2

Geumsan Insam2.5

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SEOSAN PIONEER · PPG 1.00

GEUMSAN INSAM · PPG 1.33

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.29 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Seosan Pioneer (H) 23.5%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -4.3%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -15.9%

Geumsan Insam (A) 56.0%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -4.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Seosan Pioneer face Geumsan Insam in South-Korea - K4 League on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Seosan Pioneer a 24% chance, the draw 20% and Geumsan Insam 56%, so Geumsan Insam are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Seosan Pioneer and 2.5 for Geumsan Insam (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Seosan Pioneer are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.33 for Geumsan Insam. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +34.6%. This match finished 0-3.

Seosan Pioneer vs Geumsan Insam Prediction— South-Korea - K4 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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