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Pyeongtaek Citizen vs Gijang United Prediction— South-Korea - K4 League

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 10:00

Pyeongtaek Citizen

PPG 0.36 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Gijang United

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-18.8%0-27.8%0-34.6%0-4+3.0%1 1-06.2%1-110.9%1-29.6%1-35.6%1-4+3.7%2 2-03.8%2-16.7%2-25.9%2-33.5%2-4+2.3%3 3-01.6%3-12.8%3-22.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.1%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.2% 27.8% 3.60 +8.7%

Draw 23.8% 29.4% 3.40 -11.5%

Away win 46.0% 55.6% 1.80 -17.2%

Over 2.5 59.7% 62.5% 1.60 -4.5%

Over 3.5 36.7% 41.2% 2.43 -10.8%

BTTS 60.1% 65.4% 1.53 -8.1%

Home O1.5 33.8% 37.3% 2.68 -9.4%

Away O1.5 47.9% 59.9% 1.67 -20.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 25%

ROI 37.5%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob60.1%

A 46% / xG 1.2-1.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 2–1 6.7%

#4 0–2 7.8%

#5 0–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pyeongtaek Citizen1.2

Gijang United1.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PYEONGTAEK CITIZEN · PPG 0.36

GIJANG UNITED · PPG 0.80

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.53 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Pyeongtaek Citizen (H) 30.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +8.7%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.5%

Gijang United (A) 46.0%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pyeongtaek Citizen face Gijang United in South-Korea - K4 League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pyeongtaek Citizen a 30% chance, the draw 24% and Gijang United 46%, so Gijang United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Pyeongtaek Citizen and 1.8 for Gijang United (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pyeongtaek Citizen are averaging 0.36 points per game versus 0.80 for Gijang United. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +15.7%. This match finished 2-3.

Pyeongtaek Citizen vs Gijang United Prediction— South-Korea - K4 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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