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Daejeon Korail vs Yangpyeong Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 10:00

Daejeon Korail

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Yangpyeong

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLDL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-14.1%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.7%1-18.8%1-23.0%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.6%2-19.3%2-23.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.6%3-16.6%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.4%4+-15.8%4+-22.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.3% 57.1% 1.75 +0.3%

Draw 21.0% 30.3% 3.30 -18.4%

Away win 21.7% 25.0% 4.00 -7.9%

Over 2.5 59.7% 54.1% 1.85 +10.4%

Over 3.5 36.7% 32.9% 3.04 +11.6%

BTTS 52.7% 58.8% 1.70 -10.4%

Home O1.5 59.6% 55.9% 1.79 +6.7%

Away O1.5 18.2% 29.9% 3.34 -23.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 65.8%

Bet Hit 89%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.7%

H 57% / xG 2.1-0.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.6%

#2 1–1 8.8%

#3 1–0 12.7%

#4 3–0 9.6%

#5 2–1✓ 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Daejeon Korail2.1

Yangpyeong0.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DAEJEON KORAIL · PPG 1.71

YANGPYEONG · PPG 0.64

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.44 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Daejeon Korail (H) 57.3%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +0.3%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -18.4%

Yangpyeong (A) 21.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Daejeon Korail face Yangpyeong in South-Korea - K3 League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Daejeon Korail a 57% chance, the draw 21% and Yangpyeong 22%, so Daejeon Korail are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Daejeon Korail and 0.7 for Yangpyeong (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Daejeon Korail are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.64 for Yangpyeong. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +13.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Daejeon Korail vs Yangpyeong Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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