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Tartu Kalev vs Narva U21 Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Matchday 27 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 09:30

Tartu Kalev

PPG 2.07 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDW

UPCOMING

Narva U21

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 74% chance

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.3%0-22.4%0-31.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-05.3%1-17.7%1-25.7%1-32.8%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.1%2-19.0%2-26.6%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.7%3-16.9%3-25.1%3-32.5%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-16.9%4+-25.1%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% 33.3% 3.00 +55.7%

Draw 21.1% 23.1% 4.33 -5.2%

Away win 27.0% 55.6% 1.80 -30.8%

Over 2.5 68.4% 76.9% 1.30 -11.1%

Over 3.5 45.0% 56.8% 1.76 -20.8%

BTTS 63.5% 80.0% 1.25 -20.6%

Home O1.5 66.3% — — —

Away O1.5 42.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.5%

H 52% / xG 2.3-1.5 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.7%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 5.7%

#4 3–1 6.9%

#5 2–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tartu Kalev2.3

Narva U211.5

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TARTU KALEV · PPG 2.07

NARVA U21 · PPG 1.08

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

74%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.85 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tartu Kalev (H) 51.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +55.7%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -5.2%

Narva U21 (A) 27.0%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -30.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tartu Kalev face Narva U21 in Estonia - Esiliiga B on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tartu Kalev a 52% chance, the draw 21% and Narva U21 27%, so Tartu Kalev are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Tartu Kalev and 1.5 for Narva U21 (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tartu Kalev are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 1.08 for Narva U21.

Tartu Kalev vs Narva U21 Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Match Preview & Prediction

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