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Levadia U19 vs Legion Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Matchday 25 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 16:00

Levadia U19

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Legion

PPG 0.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.5% vs bookmaker-implied 87.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.4%0-10.3%0-20.1%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-01.8%1-11.5%1-20.6%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-04.3%2-13.6%2-21.5%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.7%3-15.7%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-029.8%4+-125.2%4+-210.6%4+-33.0%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 78.6% 90.9% 1.10 -13.5%

Draw 13.8% 11.1% 9.00 +14.5%

Away win 7.6% 6.7% 15.00 +8.4%

Over 2.5 79.5% 87.7% 1.14 -9.4%

Over 3.5 58.9% 73.5% 1.36 -19.9%

BTTS 55.0% 68.5% 1.46 -19.7%

Home O1.5 78.3% — — —

Away O1.5 23.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)4.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob55.0%

H 79% / xG 4.7-0.8 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0 7.9%

#2 5–0 7.5%

#3 3–0 6.7%

#4 4–1 6.7%

#5 5–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Levadia U194.7

Legion0.8

COMBINED 5.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.5% · O3.5 PROB 58.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LEVADIA U19 · PPG 2.00

LEGION · PPG 0.45

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +3.87 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.45 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Levadia U19 (H) 78.6%

ODDS 1.10 · IMPLIED 90.9% EV -13.5%

Draw 13.8%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +14.5%

Legion (A) 7.6%

ODDS 15.00 · IMPLIED 6.7% EV +8.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Levadia U19 face Legion in Estonia - Esiliiga B on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Levadia U19 a 79% chance, the draw 14% and Legion 8%, so Levadia U19 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.7 for Levadia U19 and 0.8 for Legion (5.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Levadia U19 are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.45 for Legion. This match finished 1-0.

Levadia U19 vs Legion Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Match Preview & Prediction

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