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Luunja vs Johvi Phoenix Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 12:00

Luunja

PPG 2.38 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLLL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Johvi Phoenix

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.4% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-11.2%0-20.8%0-30.3%0-4+0.2%1 1-03.0%1-14.0%1-22.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.5%2 2-05.1%2-16.8%2-24.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.8%3-17.7%3-25.1%3-32.3%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-011.6%4+-115.5%4+-210.3%4+-34.5%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.8% 55.6% 1.80 +14.8%

Draw 15.4% 24.4% 4.10 -22.1%

Away win 20.8% 31.3% 3.20 -20.1%

Over 2.5 71.8% 83.3% 1.20 -13.8%

Over 3.5 51.6% 64.5% 1.55 -20.0%

BTTS 63.2% 83.3% 1.20 -24.2%

Home O1.5 78.4% 74.1% 1.35 +5.8%

Away O1.5 41.2% 64.1% 1.56 -35.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.2%

H 64% / xG 3.4-1.3 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.7%

#2 2–1 6.8%

#3 4–1 6.5%

#4 1–2 2.7%

#5 1–1 4.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Luunja3.4

Johvi Phoenix1.3

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.8% · O3.5 PROB 51.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LUUNJA · PPG 2.38

JOHVI PHOENIX · PPG 0.67

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.06 for Home, form 2.38 vs 0.67 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Luunja (H) 63.8%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +14.8%

Draw 15.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -22.1%

Johvi Phoenix (A) 20.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -20.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Luunja face Johvi Phoenix in Estonia - Esiliiga B on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Luunja a 64% chance, the draw 15% and Johvi Phoenix 21%, so Luunja are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Luunja and 1.3 for Johvi Phoenix (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Luunja are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 0.67 for Johvi Phoenix. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +5.8%. This match finished 2-3.

Luunja vs Johvi Phoenix Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Match Preview & Prediction

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