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Tallinna Kalev II vs Tulevik Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 12:00

Tallinna Kalev II

PPG 0.92 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Tulevik

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.0% vs bookmaker-implied 87.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-12.3%0-22.4%0-31.6%0-4+1.4%1 1-02.8%1-15.7%1-25.8%1-34.0%1-4+3.3%2 2-03.3%2-16.9%2-27.0%2-34.8%2-4+4.0%3 3-02.7%3-15.5%3-25.7%3-33.9%3-4+3.2%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-15.9%4+-26.1%4+-34.2%4+-4+3.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 42.6% 2.35 +6.7%

Draw 20.1% 24.4% 4.10 -10.5%

Away win 34.5% 45.5% 2.20 -24.1%

Over 2.5 72.0% 87.7% 1.14 -17.9%

Over 3.5 52.0% 72.5% 1.38 -28.2%

BTTS 69.6% 85.5% 1.17 -18.6%

Home O1.5 65.8% 67.1% 1.49 -2.0%

Away O1.5 56.9% 75.8% 1.32 -24.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob69.6%

H 45% / xG 2.4-2.1 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.0%

#2 2–1✓ 6.9%

#3 1–1 5.7%

#4 1–2 5.8%

#5 3–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tallinna Kalev II2.4

Tulevik2.1

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.0% · O3.5 PROB 52.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TALLINNA KALEV II · PPG 0.92

TULEVIK · PPG 1.30

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.37 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tallinna Kalev II (H) 45.4%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +6.7%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -10.5%

Tulevik (A) 34.5%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -24.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tallinna Kalev II face Tulevik in Estonia - Esiliiga B on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tallinna Kalev II a 45% chance, the draw 20% and Tulevik 35%, so Tallinna Kalev II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Tallinna Kalev II and 2.1 for Tulevik (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tallinna Kalev II are averaging 0.92 points per game versus 1.30 for Tulevik. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO05, with an expected value of +0.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Tallinna Kalev II vs Tulevik Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Match Preview & Prediction

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