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Tartu Kalev vs Tallinna Kalev II Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Matchday 25 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 15:00

Tartu Kalev

PPG 2.15 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Tallinna Kalev II

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDDW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +3.34 for Home, form 2.15 vs 0.67 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.1%0-10.2%0-20.2%0-30.1%0-4+0.1%1 1-00.5%1-11.0%1-20.8%1-30.5%1-4+0.3%2 2-01.4%2-12.4%2-22.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.3%3-14.1%3-23.6%3-32.1%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-013.0%4+-122.7%4+-219.9%4+-311.6%4+-4+7.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.6% 72.5% 1.38 -2.6%

Draw 14.6% 18.2% 5.50 -11.8%

Away win 14.8% 21.1% 4.75 -17.8%

Over 2.5 83.1% 87.7% 1.14 -5.3%

Over 3.5 72.2% 76.9% 1.30 -6.1%

BTTS 69.6% 80.0% 1.25 -13.0%

Home O1.5 78.3% — — —

Away O1.5 47.9% 62.1% 1.61 -22.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)5.1 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob69.6%

H 71% / xG 5.1-1.8 / O2.5 83% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 5–1 5.3%

#2 4–1 5.2%

#3 2–2 2.1%

#4 3–3 2.1%

#5 5–2 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tartu Kalev5.1

Tallinna Kalev II1.8

COMBINED 6.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 83.1% · O3.5 PROB 72.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TARTU KALEV · PPG 2.15

TALLINNA KALEV II · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +3.34 for Home, form 2.15 vs 0.67 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Tartu Kalev (H) 70.6%

ODDS 1.38 · IMPLIED 72.5% EV -2.6%

Draw 14.6%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -11.8%

Tallinna Kalev II (A) 14.8%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tartu Kalev face Tallinna Kalev II in Estonia - Esiliiga B on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tartu Kalev a 71% chance, the draw 15% and Tallinna Kalev II 15%, so Tartu Kalev are favoured to win. Expected goals are 5.1 for Tartu Kalev and 1.8 for Tallinna Kalev II (6.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 5-1. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tartu Kalev are averaging 2.15 points per game versus 0.67 for Tallinna Kalev II. This match finished 1-1.

Tartu Kalev vs Tallinna Kalev II Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Match Preview & Prediction

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